ZLT say:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced another downed Russian A-50 aircraft

BBC

4 min

February 23, 2024

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Photo caption, A-50 is a long-range radar detection and control aircraft based on the Il-76. Russia no longer produces such aircraft

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The Russian A-50 radar aircraft was shot down over the Krasnodar Territory, said Nikolai Oleshchuk, commander of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“The destroyed Russian A-50U is a new modernized version of the aircraft, worth $350 million,” says the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

The plane crash is confirmed by numerous Russian sources. Social networks publish the moment when he was allegedly shot down in the air, as well as footage of a fire at the crash site.

An “unidentified aircraft” crashed in the Krasnodar region, a representative of emergency services told RIA Novosti. “The reeds are burning at the crash site,” he added.

According to the operational headquarters of the Krasnodar region, two aircraft fell - their make and affiliation have not yet been named. Eyewitnesses also talk about two crashed planes.

The crash occurred in the Kanevsky district near the village of Trudovaya Armenia, not far from the eastern coast of the Azov Sea.

The Russian Ministry of Defense did not comment on the crash of the A-50 aircraft.

A number of Russian Z-military officers insist on the version of “friendly fire” - as after a similar incident on January 14.

The militaristic telegram channel Fighterbomber, close to the Russian VKS, writes that “at the moment it is unknown who shot it down.”

Several videos posted by eyewitnesses immediately show that the aircraft was shooting at heat traps, trying to divert missiles towards them. However, this did not help - a bright flash was visible in the air, after which burning debris began to fall.

The A-50 is a long-range radar detection and control aircraft based on the Il-76. Russia no longer produces such aircraft.

There could be experienced specialists on board, who are not easy to train.

Serious loss for Russian aerospace forces

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Pavel Aksenov, military observer for the BBC Russian Service

The loss of a second A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, just 40 days after another was lost in mid-January, suggests that they may indeed have been shot down by the Ukrainian military.

Both planes took a direct part in the war with Ukraine, but the circumstances of their death are so unusual that it is difficult to give an unambiguous answer to the question of who could have done it and how.

According to preliminary information, the A-50, shot down on February 23, fell near the Trudovaya Armenia farm in the Krasnodar Territory. The nearest point on the front line from this farm is approximately 250 kilometers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not use ground-based anti-aircraft weapons capable of attacking aircraft at such a distance from the front line.

The plane shot down on January 14 was located approximately 150 kilometers from the front line. The error in these calculations may be quite large, since the approximate area where the A-50 was located was known. However, this was almost the limit of the range of the Patriot complex, the longest-range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

True, it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainians could use the Soviet S-200 anti-aircraft missile system, modifying it in some way. The range of some missiles of this air defense system reaches 300 kilometers.

However, firstly, this is a stationary system, and deploying it near the front line would be dangerous. Secondly, during the current war, the Ukrainians have used the S-200 mainly for shelling ground targets.

Another version is “friendly fire”. As in the first case, on February 23, the AWACS aircraft could have been shot down by mistake by Russian anti-aircraft gunners. Although, even without taking into account the fact that the “friend or foe” recognition system was supposed to work on the plane, operators should be able to identify such a large target on the radar screen.

Finally, commentators on telegram channels are discussing the possibility that F-16 fighters could be delivered to Ukraine. This version seems the least likely, since it is difficult to fly up undetected to an aircraft that is tracking enemy fighters.

Judging by reports in various channels, which were not officially confirmed, the downed plane could have been a modification of the A-50U. The loss of such an aircraft for the Russian Aerospace Forces is very serious - this is a modernized flying radar that can clearly see low-flying and stealthy targets at a great distance.

Russia has few such aircraft. It is believed that Russia has less than 10 A-50Us in flight condition, although there is no exact data in the public domain. According to the Military Balance 2022 reference book, before the start of the war Russia had three A-50s and six A-50Us.

With the loss of two of them, the Aerospace Forces will have even less ability to control the airspace above the front line and in the Ukrainian rear, which will also facilitate the actions of Ukrainian aviation.